Looks like the NBA season is back on track. We were wondering how Kobe or LeBron would do if they started playing the game like poker players.
We've blogged before [HERE] about how the new generation of professional poker players are winning big by playing the game as if it were a giant math problem. Specifically, as applications of statistics and probability.
These NBA players seem to be on a different plane, though, from the study below.
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NBA players are much more likely to try another three-point shot after making one than after missing one.
Reggie Miller, Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant. They’ve all gone on seemingly memorable shooting streaks -- but past research has shown that the so-called "hot hand" is a myth, rooted in our tendency to see patterns where there are none.
Myth or no, the NBA shooters still seem to think they're on fire when they're not. New research finds that NBA players put too much stock in the outcome of their last three-point shot. If they make a three-pointer, they’re much more likely to try another one than if they’d missed. The study, which used game stats for hundreds of NBA and WNBA players, is in the journal Nature Communication.
The Lakers' Bryant was a prime example in his MVP season of 2007–2008. When Kobe made a three-pointer, he shot again from downtown nearly four times as often as he did following a missed three. But trying to ride a three-point streak is often bad strategy. Players actually tend to shoot a lower percentage after makes than after misses. Once again sending the idea of the “hot hand” up in smoke.
--Thanks to John Matson
